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The 90% divorce prediction that was never a prediction
The famous accuracy figures are real, and they measure something other than prediction. What happens when a divorce model is finally tested on data it has not already seen.
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Tech
Stretching Barely Prevents Injuries. Strength Training Cuts Them by Two Thirds.
A meta-analysis of 26,000 participants ranked the injury-prevention strategies head to head. The one everybody does came last. The one almost nobody does came first, by a mile.
Health
The eight-glasses rule is a sentence someone deleted
The 1945 document blamed for the rule said most of your water comes from food and that thirst is an adequate guide. Both sentences were cut. Here is what the evidence actually shows.
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Your Metabolism Does Not Slow Down at 30. It Holds Steady Until 63.
A study of 6,421 people across 29 countries mapped human energy expenditure from eight days old to 95. It found four life phases. None of them begins at 30.
Breakfast is not the most important meal of the day
The randomised trials point gently the other way. But the real story is the audit that found only 17% of citations to a key trial described its results accurately.
Renting is not throwing money away, but the real argument is stranger
Housing’s celebrated 7% return is almost all rental yield. Real capital gains run about 1% a year — and the variable that decides the answer is whether you actually invest the difference.
The sleep chart everyone copies has a footnote nobody reads
The age-by-age sleep chart is a compromise document, and the panels that wrote it said so. What the primary sources actually show about how much sleep you need.
Sport news
Nobody Is Left-Brained. The Man Who Won the Nobel for Split Brains Said So...
A study of 1,011 brains looked for people whose left or right hemisphere ran stronger overall. It found lateralised functions everywhere and lateralised people nowhere.
Opposites don’t attract, but that was never the interesting question
115 of 118 partner traits correlate positively. The gap is in personality — and the twist is that none of it predicts whether a couple will be happy.
Your Metabolism Does Not Slow Down at 30. It Holds Steady Until 63.
A study of 6,421 people across 29 countries mapped human energy expenditure from eight days old to 95. It found four life phases. None of them begins at 30.
The Meditation Researchers Auditing Their Own Field
Fifteen leading contemplative scientists published a paper warning about the hype around their own discipline. Almost nobody reported it — including the finding that when you finally ask people properly, most report side effects.
Breakfast is not the most important meal of the day
The randomised trials point gently the other way. But the real story is the audit that found only 17% of citations to a key trial described its results accurately.
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Nobody Selling You a Detox Can Tell You What They Are...
A group of scientists rang fifteen detox companies and asked one question: which toxin does this remove? Not one could answer. The regulators have been making the same point in court for twenty years.
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No Sleep Guideline Anywhere Says Eight Hours
The official number is "seven or more" — a floor with no ceiling. When researchers measured sleep in three societies without electric light, every group averaged under seven.
Your Metabolism Does Not Slow Down at 30. It Holds Steady Until 63.
A study of 6,421 people across 29 countries mapped human energy expenditure from eight days old to 95. It found four life phases. None of them begins at 30.
In 1998 Millions of Americans Became Overweight Overnight. Nobody Gained Weight.
BMI was named in 1972, in a study of 7,424 men, as a tool for comparing populations. Twenty-six years later a committee moved one number and changed who counted as healthy.